July 28th, 2012
AP
WASHINGTON– China has raised the stakes in a potential regional
flashpoint with its new city on a remote island in the contested West
Philippine (South China Sea) and its plans for a military garrison
there.
How might the United States respond?
Criticize Beijing too strongly and the Obama administration will
strain its relationship with the emerging superpower. Let it pass and
undermine two years of intense diplomacy that has promoted the US
standing among Southeast Asian nations that are intimidated by China’s
rise.
A key plank of the administration’s engagement in the Asia-Pacific
since 2010 has been its declaration of a US national interest in peace
and stability in the South China Sea, where China and five of its
neighbors — most notably the Philippines and Vietnam — have competing
territorial claims.
But tensions have only escalated. China’s raising of the flag this
week at Sansha municipality, on tiny Yongxing island, 350 kilometers
(220 miles) from its southernmost province of Hainan, came as claimants
jockey for influence in the resource-rich region.
China will not be able to project much military power from such a
small outpost — with a population of just 1,000 people and scarcely
room for an airstrip — but it has symbolic importance. Beijing says the
municipality will administer hundreds of thousands of square kilometers
(miles) of water where it wants to strengthen its control over disputed
— and potentially oil-rich — islands.
In Washington, lawmakers interested in Asia policy have been quick
to respond. Republican Senator John McCain called the move provocative,
and reinforced worries that China would attempt to impose its
territorial claims through intimidation and coercion. Democrat Sen. Jim
Webb said China’s attempt to assert control of disputed territories may
be a violation of international law.
While the State Department was careful in its commentary, it also criticized China’s “unilateral moves.”
“I think there is a concern here, that they are beginning to take
actions when we want to see all of these issues resolved at the table,”
spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said Thursday.
President Barack Obama will not want to appear soft on China as he
fights for re-election against Republican Mitt Romney who has accused
the incumbent of being weak on Beijing and has vowed to get tough, in
particular, on China’s trading practices.
However, the United States walks a fine line in its diplomacy on the
South China Sea, always stressing it does not take a position on the
competing sovereignty claims.
Defining it as a US national interest in 2010 helped galvanize
Washington’s standing in the region, and revive its ties with treaty
ally Manila and build a relationship with former enemy Hanoi. As part
of its broader push or “pivot” toward Asia, the US elevated its
engagement with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN,
and strongly supports the 10-nation bloc’s efforts to negotiate
collectively with China on the issue and draft a code of conduct to
help manage South China Sea disputes.
That’s annoyed China, which claims virtually the entire South China
Sea and its island groups, and would prefer to negotiate with the other
claimants individually. Beijing also views US intervention on the issue
as encouraging Vietnam and the Philippines to be more confrontational
in asserting their own claims.
When Chinese fishing boats were stopped by the Philippine vessels at
the disputed Scarborough Shoal in April, inside what Manila regards as
its exclusive economic zone, it deployed a navy ship supplied by the US
the previous year. That prompted China to send more vessels of its own,
escalating a standoff that rumbles on.
And the establishment of Sansha municipality in another portion of
the South China Sea came after Vietnam passed a law in June stating its
jurisdiction over the Paracel and Spratly Island chains and declaring
that all foreign naval ships entering these areas must notify
Vietnamese authorities.
The chance of such disputes spiraling into a major conflict still
appears slim, but the stakes could rise in the years ahead as
competition intensifies for the oil and gas resources in the South
China Sea. China recently put out for tender exploration offshore
blocks that overlap with areas already tendered by Vietnam, and
Philippine drilling plans could also put it on collision course with
China.
The US strategy for managing and eventually resolving these disputes
largely hangs on the efforts of ASEAN. The bloc has made some progress
in drafting a code of conduct, but there’s no sign of a lasting
resolution of territorial disputes, and South China Sea is emerging as
a divisive issue in a grouping that prizes its unity.
For the first time in its 45-year history, ASEAN failed to issue at
communique at an annual meeting of its 10 foreign ministers this month,
when host Cambodia, viewed as pro-Beijing, rejected a proposal by the
Philippines and Vietnam to mention their separate territorial disputes
with China in the statement.
In a damage-limitation exercise, ASEAN’s largest nation, Indonesia,
brokered a compromise last week. But it’s one which will do little to
assuage concerns of a rift within the grouping and a narrative that the
Obama administration will be anxious to avoid: that the struggle over
the South China Sea pits the strategic interests of the U.S. against
China.
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