The Nation
Publication Date : 06-02-2012
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First, it was Cambodia, then Vietnam and Laos. After three decades, Burma has become in the past six months the region's new darling. With the once pariah state joining the road of reformation, the new strategic profile of Southeast Asia will be undergoing serious challenges, particularly the shifting of focus to India and China, which Burma shares common borders. It can directly impact on the Western-led global security architecture and usher in a new framework that can affect the US leading security role in the region. The overall situation today is still murky to see a clear power reconfiguration as major players are still grappling with the super turns of events in Burma and the overwhelming responses from abroad. They are frantically juggling for positions to ensure their footholds are in the right place. The frequently asked question now is: which country is calling the shot or who is charge? The answers will depend on the nation or person you asked or talked to. For the semi-civilian government of President Thein Sein government, it is their proudest moment as they have worked out meticulously to implement the seven-point roadmap kicked off in August 2003. It was a fait accompli par excellence of its domestic development. In the past 10 years, the plan remained unchanged and proceeded continuously until its crescendo on Aug 19, 2011 when Thein Sien met and the opposition leader, Aung Sann Suu Kyi. They reached an amicable concord that subsequently translated into series of tangible reforms including release of political prisoners and expansion of freedom of expression. As part of the reformation's top priority, Nayphidaw has strategically let loose some of the media censorship, which overnight has generated so much goodwill within the country and around the world. Except North Korea, Burma is literally the only Asian country left without international media's regular reportings. Of late, many commentators and free media advocators have commented positively on the media empowerment there in contrast with the deteriorating environment in Thailand and other Asean countries. In respond to media openness, some members of the Burmese exile news media community are making trips to Burma to link up with local media or register for printing licenses. India-based Mizzima Multimedia Group has obtained a license of the same name to print and sell its publications. Aung Zaw, editor in chief of Irrawaddy Magazine who has been living in Chiangmai for the past 23 years, is going to Burma this week on a five-day journalist visa. For the time being, domestic and international attention is zeroed in on the by-elections on 1 April. For the outside world, those headlines of Suu Kyi's return to the campaign trails last week have given Burma the much needed face lift--a new democratic image that will certainly attract applauds and foreign assistance and investments in days and weeks ahead. It is also part of the roadmap's seventh step that will wintess the increasing role of the National Assembly or Hluttaw and its affiliates. If Suu Kyi is elected, she will quickly become an icon of Burmese parliamentarian politics although her influence would be limited. Meanwhile, Burma's image will continue to improve, pressuring the Western countries to accelerate the dismantling of sanctions. However, very few people would be questioning—or care enough to follow-- the ongoing war against the non-ceasefire groups such as the Kachin and violations of human rights against the minority groups. Strange but true, the Western countries are rushing into Burma, knowing full well that the whole development might change at any time as the military under the strongman, Gen Than Shwe, is still very much in control—not only in the parliamentarian but the nation's day-to-day politics. The case in point was Suu Kyi's latest push to amend the 2008 constitution poses a huge challenge for the power wielders. Extensive reports on her campaign trails will test the limits of Nayphidaw and reveal the nature of the new media law and other reform measures. Ironically, given such high level of anxiety, the West believes that the only way to preserve the ongoing reforms is to provide unwavering supports to the Thein Sein team by ending all forms restrictions to bring in investment, technical assistance and reconnect Burma with international networks. For the US, the improved ties with Burma have been hailed as a diplomatic coup for the Obama administration, which is seeking some solid foreign policy success. Of course, it would be hard to sell in the presidential election but nonetheless it is a positive development, at least for now. That helps to explain why Washington's engagement with Nayphidaw has been specific and focused on nuclear-nonproliferation and missile technology and human rights issues. High-level commitments from the Thein Sein government to the US enabled the normalisation process to move quickly with concrete steps. When the first small patch of political prisoners were released back in November, the disappointing US moved quickly to step up pressure on Burma for bigger release which finally came through in January 2012 as the US expressed willingness to normalise ties at the ambassadorial level. This impetus is likely to continue and provide the umbrella for other Western countries to move in. The European Community after two decades of coordinated sanctions with the US is moving quickly to establish its presence. United Kingdom, the staunchest anti-Nayphidaw in EU, has already entered its former colonial territory making uses of old links. So are the plethora of Japanese senior officials and executives who are yearning for old Burma that they used to know. Under the Yingluck leadership, Thailand has reduced itself into an insignificant regional player, whose interest is dwelled on short-term economic returns. So far, she has not been able to articulate key strategic issues Thailand is facing in the fast changing world. Domestically, her government is constantly mobilised for public relations. Heavy news spins can provide the cover of leadership's incompetency for the time being—not for long. After the unfettered five-decade lead-time for national development, Thailand today no longer has the same privilege. Other neighbours, especially the former Indochinese countries, are enjoying the dividend of peace and stability with an equal access, if not more, to global resources and knowledge that increase their levels playing fields and fasten nation building. Meanwhile, Thailand continues to indulge in self-destruction political games, which have already zapped its regional influence as well as slow down development and progress. If Burma is genuine and can maintain current reform moments for an extended period until taking over the Asean chair in 2014, it can easily emerge as a catalyst for the emerging regional architecture with its nexus of security and democratic developoment. Albeit the recalcitrance to credit Asean, Burma can still count on the members' support when it tweaks on major powers. If the democracy takes holds, the country can tip the political balance within Asean--similar to Indonesia's democratisation. Unlike the rest of Southeast Asia, Burma has already mastered the diplomatic game of "dynamic equilibrium", the term used by Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa. Indeed, no other Southeast Asian nations in recent memory have turned down an ongoing China's huge construction project in mid-air as in the case of Myintsone Dam last year. |
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