ASEAN, China hardening positions on overlapping claims in South China Sea

May 31, 2011
Source: China Post

After 15 years of discreet and patient diplomacy over the overlapping claims in South China Sea, both the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China have now showed signs of fatigue at the lack of progress towards a resolution as well as joint development schemes. Incidents of alleged intrusions and confrontations in the resource-rich maritime territories among various claimants have increased in the past two years.

But the most serious one occurred on March 2 when the Philippine oil exploration ship, MV Veritas Voyager, was harassed by the Chinese Navy patrol boats at Reed Bank. It topped the agenda when Chinese Defense Minister Gen. Liang Guanlie visited the Philippines last week. The incident immediately harked back to the event in March 1995 when the Philippines confronted China after the discovery of new structures in the Mischief Reefs, which subsequently led ASEAN to issue a joint statement, the first and only one, expressing “serious concern” over Beijing's action.

Over those years, there were high hopes that the Declaration of the Conduct of Parties in the South China in 2002 would not only encourage the claimants to restrain from any activity that would destabilize the whole region but help to resolve issues related to territorial sovereignty. Somehow the long-standing pledge for the promotion of trust-building measures and mutually beneficial cooperative continue to be an elusive aim in the past nine years.

One stumbling block remains the wordings of the implementing guidelines of the 2002 document, which was agreed upon when their bilateral relations were at the zenith.

The ASEAN claimants, Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and China still fight over them when their senior officials last met in Medan, Indonesia. Given the current tension and growing mutual suspicion, especially between China and Vietnam/Philippines, it is doubtful if they could finalize the guidelines in time for next year's 10th commemoration in Phnom Penh, when Cambodia chairs the 20th ASEAN summit. Their collective assertiveness showed that the disputes in South China Sea represent their core national interests.

More than conflicting parties like to admit, the relatively benign environment which ASEAN and China used to enjoy tackling the South China Sea problem since the Mischief Reef in 1995 effectively ended last July.

The dispute got an international stamp when the U.S. Secretary Hilary Clinton raised the issue openly on the freedom and safety of navigation in South China Sea and expressed a strong support for the ASEAN document.

Furthermore, the U.S. also offered to facilitate diplomatic efforts to find a resolution. From that moment on, China and the ASEAN claimants knew full well that the conflicts have been thrown open into an international arena — something they kept under wraps for the past 15 years.

China was quite happy to continue negotiations with ASEAN over the guidelines without intervention from other players. Back in 1994, when China was still a consultative partner of ASEAN, visiting Chinese Foreign Minister Qian Qichen told ASEAN counterparts in Brunei Darussalam that Asian countries must solve their problems in an Oriental Way.

Somehow this approach rings hollow and does not bode well with the current atmosphere.

The lack of progress coupling with growing claimants' presence and visible physical structures has provided the raison d'etre for the ASEAN claimants, in particular Vietnam and now the Philippines, to harden their pursuits for more tangible outcomes.

To add fuel to the fire, last week, the two ASEAN countries agreed to work on a joint exploration oil and gas project in the disputed areas.

Previously, ASEAN claimants and China held bilateral negotiations trying to craft collaborative frameworks that would be acceptable to both sides — settling sovereignty issue with ASEAN claimants and overall cooperation with all ASEAN members. Unfortunately, some claimants viewed the exercise as a foot-dragging tactic to further strengthen presence in claimed islands or islets. At the moment, Vietnam occupies 23 islets while China and Malaysia occupy seven each. The Philippines has claimed the so-called Kalayaan island Group made up of 54 islands, reefs and shoals.

Last July in Hanoi, Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi was visibly upset when the South China Sea issue was brought and discussed openly at the ASEAN Regional Forum. It was a radical departure from the modus operandi agreed at the Huangzhou meeting between China and ASEAN in April 1995, both sides successfully kept the dispute within their turf.

At this hill resort meeting, ASEAN for the first time jointly called on China to be more transparent about its claims over the South China Sea including the significance of the nine-dot line. The lack of better answers and practice gradually pushed the ASEAN claimant beyond the bilateral framework. The fact that the dispute last year received a wider international attention was also partly attributed to the ASEAN chair's diplomatic maneuverability.

One immediate consequence of this shift would be the less-polite aspect of China's attitude and policy towards ASEAN. It is currently in a reset mode. Beijing views the ASEAN positions over the guidelines as problematic as undermining its sovereignty claims. With ASEAN members juggling their positions between the claimants and non-claimants as well as China's ambivalence on ASEAN as individual nations and as an organization, the ASEAN-China relations will be under severe tests from now on.

Without the law-binding code of conduct, it is hard to foresee long-term peace and stability in the region's maritime territory.

The whole scheme of things is further complicated by the new strategic landscape coupling with the rise of China and its blue navy fleets as well as the U.S.'s proactive engagement in Asia. As such, it is not hard to envisage additional non-claimant players or facilitators that want to guarantee the safety of sea lanes for their vital mercantile activities.

Finally, if the ongoing disputes are not properly handled, it would have huge spill-over effects on the broader China-U.S. rivalry in this region. The Philippines, not to mention Japan and South Korea in Northeast Asia with their overlapping claims of Islands with China, has a treaty alliance with the U.S. For instance, a small incidental armed attack in the Kalayaan Island chains can easily turn ugly amid growing China-U.S. rivalry. The Philippine government is confident that any attack on a Filipino ship in the areas under its administration is a direct attack on the U.S. as stipulated in the defense treaty with the U.S.